Category Archives: Trading

Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 10 of 13

Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 10 of 13

There was a time, back when I was an outside observer of the Federal Reserve, when commodity future option trading the Fed practiced what some have dubbed opportunistic disinflation. Beginning in the mid-1980s, the FOMC recognized that while recessions sometimes occur, they could not be [...]

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Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 8 of 13

Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 8 of 13

Over the same period, the dollar has declined nearly 3 percent against the euro. We know that monetary policy acts with a lag of commodities trading systems, but even with my well-documented pessimism about the efficacy of lowering the fed funds rate to 3 percent, [...]

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Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 9 of 13

Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 9 of 13

Recent readings on inflation have not been encouraging. The rate of increase in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, or core PCE that is, what people buy, except food and energy was 2.2 percent over the 12 months ending in January. Yet, its headline [...]

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